CCTV: the inflection point of the pig cycle has not yet arrived
Cycle is the market performance of pig price fluctuation. Pig farmers should think more counter cycle, respond in advance and plan ahead before the arrival of peak or trough. In the process of cost reduction and efficiency increase, the pig industry should size up the situation, balance short-term investment and long-term investment, strengthen cooperation with the industrial Internet, and improve the level of intelligent pig breeding and overall production efficiency.
Recently, the five departments jointly released pig product information data. By the end of October, there were 43.48 million sows in the country, equivalent to 106% of the normal population, in the yellow area. It is reported that muyuan, Wen's, Zhengbang and new hope disclosed the annual marketing plan for 2021 on the investor Q & a platform. According to preliminary calculation, the annual pig marketing of the four major pig enterprises is expected to exceed 75 million.
Through the efforts of the whole industry, pig production has fully recovered in the second quarter of this year. From June to September, the average price of fat pigs fell all the way below the cost line, and the whole pig industry fell into a loss. In the fourth quarter, the market price rebounded and the breeding loss eased. In October, the average losses of loose breeding and large-scale pig breeding were 349 yuan and 335 yuan respectively, 42.2% and 49.8% less than those in September. In November, the price of live pigs was higher than the cost line, and some farmers began to make profits. From this point of view, the recent rise in pig prices is a restorative rise, mainly driven by the demand for pork consumption at the end of the year. From the absolute level of prices, pig prices are currently in a more reasonable range.
At present, the fundamentals of relatively loose production and supply of pigs and pork have not changed, which means that the pork supply will be fully guaranteed in the next period of time. At the same time, the inflection point of this round of pig cycle has not really come. According to monitoring, since March, the number of newborn piglets in national pig farms has been more than 30 million per month, and has continued to grow. According to the law, piglets can be released after six months of fattening. It is expected that the number of listed fat pigs will increase significantly year-on-year until the first quarter of next year. In October, the number of fertile sows in China was still 6% higher than the normal number, indicating that the situation of relative excess supply of pigs will continue for some time.
The number of small and medium-sized farmers accounts for 99% of the pig farmers in China, and its pig breeding volume is close to half of that in China. There are a large number of scattered farmers. Based on their subjective wishes, all parties hope to avoid the impact of pig price fluctuations on themselves, but it is easy to become a pro cyclical behavior of "chasing up and killing down". Many subjects are lucky. When the price is good, they want others to increase their production capacity and produce as much as possible. Due to the financial advantages of large-scale farms, they are unwilling to reduce production easily, and the scattered farmers have cost advantages and can bear low prices, resulting in the slow speed of capacity removal in this round, and the bottom time may be prolonged. Pig cycle is the market performance of pig price fluctuation. Pig farmers should think more counter cyclical, respond in advance and plan ahead before the arrival of peak or trough. At present, do not blindly bet on the post market because the pig price has picked up, and do not be eager to expand production capacity to avoid large losses in the later stage.
For the pig industry, it can not control the pig price, but it can control the pig cost. At any time, the low-cost pig raising ability is the core competitiveness of the pig industry. Under the current super pig cycle, the proportion of large-scale breeding increased from 46.9% in 2017 to 57.1% in 2020. The industry concentration increased rapidly and the industrial chain integration accelerated. However, the problem of irregular cost distribution has become increasingly prominent. This is a phased phenomenon caused by the rapid expansion of the industry brought by high profits. In detail, the production costs of different models vary greatly. Large scale farms are different from retail investors, self breeding is different from outsourcing piglets, and "enterprise + farmer" is different from the comprehensive investment model. Therefore, in the process of cost reduction and efficiency increase, the pig industry should size up the situation, balance short-term investment and long-term investment, strengthen cooperation with the industrial Internet, and improve the level of intelligent pig breeding and overall production efficiency.
For the management department, meat prices can fluctuate, but they should avoid ups and downs in the short term. We should adjust and improve the stable production mode that focused on stabilizing the stock in the past, regulate the number of fertile sows at the front end, stabilize large-scale farmers at the middle end, and promote pork processing at the back end. Breeding sows is the "master switch". As long as the number of breeding sows does not change much, piglet production will be guaranteed, and the supply of live pigs and pork prices will be relatively stable. Regular release of the sow breeding signal can guide the reasonable production capacity layout in advance from the source. Large scale farmers are the "main force". We should support leading enterprises and small and medium-sized farmers to form a community of interests through "companies + farmers", trusteeship leasing, technology sharing and Brand Co creation. Meat processing enterprises are "reservoirs". Doing this can not only adjust the rhythm of pork listing, but also optimize the profit distribution of the industry. In order to absorb Sichuan pig production capacity, Sichuan Province has cultivated pork intensive processing agglomeration areas in the three places, which is worth learning from.